I don’t want to be writing this guide for you this week. Michigan just lost to Ohio State and looked competitive enough to give me hope. However, I owe you, the reader, my weekly picks as I look to rebound off a 2-5-1 week. That’s unacceptable and you deserve better. This week I’m only giving you locks and not messing around with unders or basic research. This is a gut week and week 12 is gut-check time.

Just the picks: Falcons -9 1/2,  Browns +8 1/2, Titans -3 1/2, Saints +2 1/2, Seahawks -6 1/2, Jaguars -4 1/2, Steelers (-14)

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-9 1/2) – 1 PM

Tampa Bay is garbage and the Falcons seem to be turning their season around after a slow start.

Cleveland (+8 1/2) at Cincinnati – 1 PM

I don’t buy the Cincinnati resurgence, plus the Browns have kept most of their losses close.

Tennessee (-3 1/2) at Indianapolis – 1 PM

It’s been a bad year for both of these teams, but each team has had double-digit days to prepare so I’ll take the team with more talent on paper.

New Orleans (+2 1/2) at Los Angeles Rams – 4:05 PM

The Saints and Rams are both much improved from last season, but I won’t bet against Drew Brees and still can’t convince myself Jared Goff is good.

Seattle (-6 1/2) at San Francisco – 4:05 PM

I know Seattle is banged up, but the NFC is bad enough that the Seahawks should still cruise to a wildcard berth. The 49ers meanwhile have already exceeded expectations by winning a game this season.

LOCK: Jacksonville (-4 1/2) @ Arizona – 4:25 PM

Jacksonville is good and unless Arizona’s secondary can take back two Blake Bortles interceptions for touchdowns, I can’t see Blaine Gabert keeping it close in an all-time sad revenge game storyline. People forget that Gabbert left a year early from Mizzou and the Jags drafted him in the first round.

DOUBLE LOCK: Green Bay @ Pittsburgh (-14) – 8:30 PM

Green Bay is so bad. They can’t score at all and Pittsburgh’s defense is back. This should get ugly in prime time.